What began as proxy confrontation has escalated into direct conflict between Iran and Israel, with the United States now directly involved. The escalation ladder climbed rapidly through 2024 and 2025.
What began as proxy confrontation has escalated into direct conflict between Iran and Israel, with the United States now directly involved. The escalation ladder climbed rapidly through 2024 and 2025.
In April 2024, Iran launched its first-ever direct missile and drone attack against Israeli territory — over 300 projectiles — following an Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. A US, UK, French and Jordanian intercept coalition destroyed the majority of incoming projectiles. Israel's retaliatory strike targeted Iran's air defence radars near Isfahan.
In June 2025, following months of intelligence assessments suggesting Iran was weeks from nuclear weapons capability, the United States conducted strikes on Iran's Fordow and Natanz enrichment facilities. Iran declared the strikes an act of war and launched retaliatory attacks against US military assets in Iraq and Syria, killing 12 US service members.
Iran has activated its network of proxies across the region. Hezbollah has resumed rocket fire into northern Israel. Houthi forces in Yemen are conducting daily attacks on Red Sea shipping. Iraqi and Syrian militias have conducted drone attacks on US bases. The Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20% of global oil transits — faces credible closure threat.
Global oil markets have responded dramatically. Brent crude has surged above $110/barrel. Lloyd's of London war risk premiums for Gulf tanker routes have increased 400% since October 2023. Shipping companies are rerouting vessels via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 14 days to journey times and significantly increasing costs.