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The UNHCR reports global forced displacement has exceeded 117 million people — a figure that has more than doubled since 2012. Sudan now represents the world's largest active displacement crisis, surpassing Ukraine in scale of newly displaced since April 2023.
The Sudan conflict, Myanmar civil war, and continued Sahel insurgency collectively account for approximately 16 million new displacements in the past 24 months. Each of these crises shares a structural feature: the erosion of a state security apparatus that previously contained militia or insurgent movements.
The Taiwan Strait tension remains the highest-consequence low-probability risk in the current environment. PLA exercise frequency has increased 40% year-on-year. Analysts assess the probability of kinetic engagement below 8% in the next 12 months — but economic disruption from sustained exercises is already measurable.